New Zealand dollar falls during Tuesday session to test minor uptrend line

The New Zealand dollar has fallen a bit during the trading session on Tuesday, reaching down towards the vital 0.69 level underneath, which has been both support and resistance on the short-term charts recently. I think that the market will eventually go looking towards the 0.68 level which has been the bottom of longer-term consolidation if we break down below this short-term uptrend line. I think that the move makes quite a bit of sense, especially if we get more of a “risk off” move or perhaps higher interest rates coming out of the United States which I do expect. Above, there is a significant amount of resistance at the 0.70 level, an area that has been important more than once. I think selling rallies will be a nice trading opportunity near that area as well.

Pay attention to the commodity markets, they always have a major influence on what happens to the New Zealand dollar, and I think that paying attention to soft commodities such as agricultural commodities, is going to be crucial to determine where the Kiwi dollar goes. I think that although we have been grinding higher as of late, it’s only a matter of time before the bearish pressure comes back into the marketplace, but you can look around and see that the US dollar has been a bit overbought over the last several sessions, especially when you compare to other currencies such as the Euro. In short, I believe the market will either break this minor trendline, or rallies slightly so that we can sell it at a higher level.