NZD/USD Price Forecast December 5, 2017, Technical Analysis

With the NZD/USD pair gapped lower at the open on Monday, then reaching even lower than that, I think this shows just how bearish this market is longer term. I believe that signs of exhaustion on rallies will be nice selling opportunities, reaching down to the 0.68 support level below. If we can break down below there, the market should then go down to the 0.66 handle and then possibly even the 0.65 level after that. On the other hand, if we break above the 0.69 level, then I think that the market will first test the 0.6950 level, and then the 0.70 level after that. The 0.70 level is massively important, and a break above there could be a longer-term buy signal. Until then, I think that we always have the threat of a roll over, or some type of exhaustion.
If we do get significant tax reform, the market will more than likely breakdown below the 0.68 handle, and continue to roll over as the US dollar should strengthen against most currencies. The New Zealand dollar has its own issues anyway, with Labour Party being elected recently suggesting that there is probably going to be more spending in New Zealand than previously. That’s not to say that it’s the end of the world for the New Zealanders, just that there are concerns about quantitative easing. If we do rally, that’s probably more of an anti-US dollar play than anything else. The noise continues to be difficult in this pair, so by all means be careful.