NZD/USD Price Forecast November 30, 2017, Technical Analysis

The New Zealand dollar has been very noisy during the trading session on Wednesday, breaking well above the 0.69 level again, but forming a perfect shooting star on the hourly chart to roll over and break down below that level again. I believe that the market is trying to roll over in general, and perhaps is exhausting itself at these reasonably high levels based upon short-term movement. At this point, I suspect that the market is going to go looking towards the 0.68 level underneath. That’s an area that has been massively supportive recently, and I think it will be again. However, if we were to break down below there the New Zealand dollar could come undone, perhaps reaching towards the 0.66 level, and then of course the 0.65 handle. This is a market that will continue to be very noisy, because there are a lot of concerns in general.
Some of those concerns include the US dollar strengthening based upon the tax reform bill, as well as interest rate hikes. Because of this, the US dollar has found a bit of strength lately, especially as commodity currencies. However, what also seems to be pushing this market is concerned that the Labour Party running the show in New Zealand means that we are going to see more spending out of that country, which of course is the same thing as quantitative easing. In other words, the fundamentals lineup for a lower New Zealand dollar in general, and at this point I think that is probably the best way to trade this market, simply selling rallies as they appear, and assuming that we will have to make a serious run at the 0.68 handle underneath. I also believe that if we were to break above the 0.70 level, that changes everything in this pair, and we would have to reevaluate the entire situation.